科普生态视域下的中国科普发展指数研究 ——基于31个省域10年的监测分析

Research on China’s Science Popularization Development Index from the Perspective of Science Popularization Ecosystem：A Decadal Analysis Across 31 Provincial-Level Regions in China

中文关键词: 科普生态系统 科普发展指数 科普发展时空演进 “4W2E”评价框架

英文关键词: science popularization ecosystem  science popularization development index  spatio temporal evolution of science popularization development  4W2E evaluation framework

中文摘要:

      本研究基于生态系统理论构建了科普生态系统，解构了构成要素和结构关系并描述了科普生态系 统在供给端、需求端、环境端和展现端的特征。在此基础上，设计了“4W2E”科普发展评价框架，从人 员、内容、渠道、受众、环境、影响六个维度提出了由29个测量指标构成的评价指标体系。采用AHP与 熵值法—Critic组合赋权法，利用多源数据集，对2012—2021年全国31个省域的科普发展指数进行了测 算。结果表明，全国科普发展整体呈现阶段性上升态势，东部地区科普发展水平较高，中西部地区相对滞 后。从空间分布上看，科普发展水平呈现由东向西逐步降低的态势，地区间差距仍较为明显。2015—2018 年，科普发展水平出现略微下降，主要受科普内容供给不足影响导致。建议后发地区要充分利用科普水平 较高地区的空间溢出效应，通过经济和教育的反哺，带动科普资源的合理分布；充分利用互联网、大数据 和人工智能等新技术，拓宽科普渠道构建高效的科普信息化体系。

英文摘要:

      Grounded in ecosystem theory，this study constructs a science popularization ecosystem and deconstructs its key elements and structural relationships. Six key components were identified across four dimensions: supply-side，demand-side，environment-side，and presentation-side. Following six key components，a“4W2E”evaluation framework was developed with 29 measurement indicators across six dimensions: persons，contents，channels，audience，environment，and impact. Utilizing multi source datasets，the science popularization development index was calculated for 31 provincial-level regions from 2012 to 2021 using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）and Entropy-Critic weighting method. The findings identify a phase-wise upward trend in nationwide science popularization development，with eastern regions demonstrating higher development levels than the central and western regions. Spatially，the development of science popularization shows a progressive expansion from east to west，accompanied by notable regional disparities. During the 2015—2018 period， science popularization development exhibited a marginal decline，primarily attributable to insufficient supply-side content provision. These findings provide empirically grounded policy recommendations for optimizing resource allocation and promoting quality-intensive science popularization public strategies.